Work package 3: Development of consistent scenarios (WP3)

Work package 3 develops socio-technical context scenarios. Using a Cross-Impact-Balance (CIB) approach consistent and transparent qualitative scenarios will be created. Based on these scenarios we will identify and specify consistent datasets. The datasets will include information relevant for the creation of quantitative scenarios focusing on energy systems.

In a first step of the CIB analysis factors which are relevant for the energy systems will be extracted from literature. In addition we will elicit information from experts by using questionnaires and by organizing a workshop. Beside quantitative factors, qualitative aspects which impact the development of the energy system will also be taken into consideration. The factors as well as well as the links between them will be discussed at a second, interdisciplinary workshop. To improve the link between qualitative scenario generation and quantitative modeling we will refine the CIB-approach with respect to the number of factors which can be taken into consideration and with focus on its use as a tool for the verification of scenarios carried out by quantitative models.

Supported by Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy